Aspermont Dove ReportLittle Bend Ranch · Stonewall County, TX · Rolling Plains · TPWD North Zone
10-day outlook AM / PM hunt rating
Day by day
Porch Talk drag the forecast, watch the rating move.
Pick a day and a window, then argue with the forecast. Same model as the ratings above, so this settles "what if Friday's storms hold off" or "what if the wind gets up."
What the weather is doing to the birds
Migration radar BirdCast
Legal & logistics
How the ratings work
Each window (morning or evening) is scored 0–100 for grain fields and for stock tanks; the card shows the better of the two and names it. Prime ≥ 76 · Good 62–75 · Fair 46–61 · Poor < 46. A rain chance of 50% or more inside the window is an automatic Poor.
| Factor | Max | How it scores |
|---|---|---|
| Rain in window | 30 | Falls fast as the chance rises: 0% = 30, 20% = 17, 40% = 8 |
| Wind | 22 | 5–15 mph = 22 · calm = 17 · 15–20 = 14 · 20–25 = 6 · 25+ = 0 |
| Ground water | 15 | Prior-24h rain scatters water. Tanks lose the full amount; fields lose 40% of it |
| Front | 12 | Strong front 1–3 days back = 12, 4–7 days = 9; weak = 8 / 6; day-of = 2–4; none = 2 |
| Heat | 12 | Evening on a tank: 90°+ = 12, 85–89 = 8, cooler = 4. Fields or mornings: 3–5 |
| Sky | 10 | Mornings: clear = 10, partly = 6, overcast = 3. Evenings: 7, or 3 if overcast |
Why these. Rain during the window kills the flight outright. 5–15 mph keeps birds low and on predictable lines; over 20 they hug cover. Water in every low spot after rain pulls birds off the tanks for a day or two, while grain stays reliable. A north wind with a 10°+ drop pushes northern mourning doves into the Rolling Plains; the best hunting is 1–3 days behind it once it dries. Hot, dry afternoons concentrate birds on water. Heavy overcast delays and stretches the morning flight. Moon phase is minor and is not scored.